Saturday, August 29, 2009

EMPLOYMENT GOING FORWARD

The third and fourth quarter of 2009 looks to be where the United States will reach an unemployment percentage of 10% and possibly over 10%. Thus, the hand ringing begins. Granted, anytime an able and willing worker goes without a job the unemployment rate is too high. But, all this is certainly going to change in 2011 when the first wave of baby boomers begins to reach the age of 65,

You'll notice below that 76 million boomers (actually 75.8 million) were born between 1946 and 1964 (18 years). Most economists believe that an additional 5 million immigrants have been added to that population...consequently they usually speak of the baby boom population as being 80 million. Even though this source indicates they now represent 28% of the population it's a much larger share of the work force. Conventional thinking is that one-third of the workforce is made up of baby boomers.

The numbers I gave you mean an average of about 4.5 million will begin leaving the workforce beginning in 2011, or about 370,500 per month. Most economist believe the economy needs to produce about 150,000 per month (1.8 million per year) to keep up with the people entering the workforce. Obviously that's going to get easier when 370,000 people begin exiting the workforce each month. Although this would not be new jobs created…but, jobs replaced.

According to bbhq.com.

"For the years 1940-1994, inclusive, 202 million Americans were born; about 77% of all Americans now living were born after 1939. During the baby boomer years, 1946-1964 (inclusive), 75.8 million Americans were born. The ratio of males to females has stayed relatively constant. There were approximately 1.05 male births for every one female birth.

The biggest year of the boom was 1957, when 4.3 million boomers were born. Why it took over 10 years for so many post-World War II families to get going is a matter of speculation. For the 5-year period between 1956 and 1960, inclusive, 21.2 million boomers were born, nearly 1 1/2 times the number born between 1941 and 1945, and the largest for any 5-year period in the 20th century.

Boomers today represent 28% of the U.S. population. But in 1964, they represented about 40% of the population. In other words, in 1964 more than a third of the population was under 19 years old! No wonder the baby boomers attracted so much attention. "

Then, according to babyboomercaretaker.com

“Within a decade, a large percentage of baby boomers would be approaching their age of retirement, thereby raising a deep concern on the issue of depleting work force that can affect the national economy significantly. Baby boomers comprise of one-third of entire work force in the United States and there are not enough youngsters who have the necessary skill so as to be considered a replacement. This situation has forced many companies to change the method of recruitment, retention and work schedules.

Mature workforce is a privilege in this current era of competitiveness as these workers are considered to be reliable, efficient, compassionate and honest. An effect of aging employees is a phenomenon that is going to have a global impact during the next decade that can cause a significant threat to future growth and productivity.

Hence, the issue of aging workforce has forced companies to recognize and value the issues surrounding the mature workforce. Companies are rethinking their policies related to recruitment and employee retention. It has changed the entire definition of working patterns. Considering the requirement of aging workforce, employers are bringing in flexible working hours in the office. Preference for part time jobs, telecommuting and job sharing is constantly on a rise among baby boomers. These people are less interested in working for long hours.
Baby boomers have also influenced the concept of retirement. Many of them want to still continue working even after retirement so as meet basic financial needs and to be engaged in their related fields. Others want to balance work and leisure during retirement. There are certain other groups who are getting enrolled into colleges so as to pursue their schooling ambitions. Some companies have casual worker program where aging people are re-employed, while providing limited benefits. Educated and experienced baby boomers are also being recruited as consultants.”


This modification of the workforce will dramatically alter employment going forward for the next 18 years. The short fall of available workers is going to turn our current employment environment upside down. Where we have had more workers that jobs…we start in 2011 to have more jobs than workers, probably in the neighborhood of 50,000 to 100,000 jobs per month. That is exactly the opposite effect as there is today.

The corrections will require figuring out ways to keep the baby boomer at least partially engaged in the work market. It may mean those pesky immigrants, the right wingers constantly complain about, may become very important. I suspect shorter work weeks, job sharing, flexible working hours, and probably an idea or two which might not previously have been considered will be used to persuade baby boomers back into the workforce.

It will have some positive effects on the national budget deficit. Although, due to the reckless use of funds during the Bush years, lavishing tax cuts on the wealthy and pursuing a war of choice, government spending has been ballooning to portions that make our heads want to explode, going forward unemployment spending, and even educational spending should come under control. Keep in mind, spending on food stamps would also subside with full employment. And, the need for educational loans would also like decrease as employers take over the training of their workers, and jobs being plentiful will coax students out of school and into the workforce. All this coupled with the lessons learned from engaging in needless wars and the disengagement in Iraq and Afghanistan should lessen the annual deficit and help return to paying down the national debt.

It’s going to look a lot different. And the recognition of this new environment is why we should always be thinking long term. Just as I knew Alan Greenspan and George W. Bush were blowing smoke up our collective asses when the proclaimed at the beginning of Dubya’s term that record surpluses would cause a problem going forward, it’s plain to see that we need to be aware that going forward we’re going to have a much different landscape for the economy. There will be government spending alterations, and we need to consider them. It would have been nice for Alan and Dubya to have considered what will all those surpluses mean if we have a recession or find ourselves getting into a protracted and expensive war. Those tax cuts for all Dubya’s buddies might not have been so attractive…at least to the rest of us.

The country will need to get through this recession recognizing how much different this will look in a couple of years. Politician’s will need to recognize that pulling back from the stimulus might push us into the depression we avoided (just go back and revisit the Roosevelt mistakes of 1933 when he decided to reign in the spending and the country went right back into depression). Think long term. There will be a time to deal with the national debt…but, now is not the time to fight that battle. However, beginning in 2011 the time bring spending into balance and to pay down the debt may come again.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

THE POLITE SOCIETY

How long do you expect it will be before “lefties” start showing up at public political events with guns strapped to their side? I think the common notion is that only those on the right own guns. That would be a big mistake. Those on the left own them too. They’re probably more open to gun control laws than those on the right…but, trust me…they have guns.

I love the goofy logic of the Ron Paul group that if everyone had a gun we’d be a more polite society. What in God’s name makes these righties think that big ego’s don’t trump “give everyone a gun and no one will get out of line.” A bully is a bully, pure and simple. Give a bully a gun, it doesn’t matter whether his political leaning are to the right or the left, sooner or later the bully is going to want to show us all exactly how tough he is. Is there anyone who thinks we’d be better off if everyone on a commercial airplane had a gun? Are you really dumb enough to think you’d be safer?

The recent gun toting protester at President Obama’s town hall meeting in New Hampshire bore a tee shirt with the famous Thomas Jefferson quote that “the tree of Liberty must periodically be watered with the blood of patriots.” It’s a catchy phrase…but, I think it’s time someone ask the question of “why must the tree be watered with blood?”

Let’s not forget this was the same quote adorned by Timothy McVeigh when he was arrested for the Oklahoma City Bombings. Let’s also remember some of the blood Mr. McVeigh was watering the tree of Liberty with was that of CHILDREN who were attending day school in the Murray Building.

This country has tried the gun culture that was supposed to create the “polite society” referred to by Congressman Paul. It was called the “WILD WEST.” It really didn’t work out that well.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m resolved that the constitution provides for the “right to bear arms.” If anyone believes they need a gun to protect themselves I believe they have the “right” to own a gun. But, I don’t think that means without any control. I mean…we don’t have the right to bear “nuclear arms” now do we? And, I think that in order to prevent an unruly crowd (say like we’ve seen at some of the recent health care town hall protest) we might exercise some self-governing and say that a crowd of right and left wing zealots is more likely to insight gun-play than discourage it.

Given this country’s history with political assassination…Lincoln, the Kennedy brothers, Dr. King, not to mention those that were just shot at…Regan, Ford, George Wallace (you do recognize that those last three names were conservatives, which only proves my point that it’s not only the right that should be feared). It’s just plainly not a good idea to have gun toting protesters clearly in sight around political gatherings where the country’s first African-American President is in attendance. In fact, it’s probably not worth the risk where a Senator or Congressman are in attendance either.

Let’s keep those weapons in places that we might need them for defensive purposes and not offensive aggression.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

THE SECRET OF BIPARTISAN SUPPORT

The airwaves are overcome with speculation as to WHY the President continues to hold out hope for bipartisan support for Healthcare Reform. I hate to let the secret out…but, this isn’t about bipartisan support if you expect 25% to 50% of the Republicans in the Senate to vote for Healthcare Legislation with a public option…or, really anything about healthcare in it. However, this is about getting two specific Republican votes. Both are in the Senate representing Maine. Yes…this is all about Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins.

Those two are really the only Republicans who have open, objective minds at all. Really, one wonders why these two haven’t jumped ship and come to the Democratic side anyway. However, those are the two that all of this bipartisan talk is pointed. And, in the end they will be the only Republican votes. Senators Snowe and Collins are acutely aware of the need for healthcare legislation that will address covering all our citizens, eliminate pre-existing conditions, be affordable, and reign in the era of excess by the health insurance companies.

As for the rest…let’s recognize the Barney Frank philosophy, “there no sense in arguing with a dining room table.”

Monday, August 17, 2009

The Profit Motive

Do we truly want the “profit motive” to be the prevailing energy for everything? For example, is it the Christian intention that only “profitable churches” are useful? Are only the pastors who are profitable doing “God’s” work? Is that the way Muslims, or Jews evaluate a Mosque or Temple? If we pursue the religious teachings of virtually all religions and especially Christian denominations to take care of the poor…can that ever be profitable? Of course not!

How is medical treatment for the sick much different? Do we really want the treatment of the sick, especially those who happen to also be poor, to be based on profit? If it’s a member of your family, and a life saving medical procedure that’s needed, do you really want it to be premised on whether you can pay for the procedure with an adequate percent of profit added to the cost? I doubt it!

We are sooner or later going to have to recognize that the necessity of profit shouldn’t have a prominent place in medical care. Sooner or later we’re going to have to recognize that the INSURANCE COMPANIES are the problem. I don’t know how many ways there are of telling this story. But, to those reading…the insurance companies have legions of employees who are dedicated to doing one thing and one thing only…denying your claim. The ruse works like this. You file a routine claim for an annual check-up for one of your small children. You’ve had coverage since the birth of the child, so why would you think the doctor’s visit wouldn’t be covered. But, then you get a denial of the claim back from the insurance company.

Unfortunately, many people would go ahead and accept liability for the bill themselves and try to figure out how they would get the funds to pay their doctor or health provider out of the family budget. However, since you work for a large company you challenge the denial through your company’s administration office. The insurance company advises you they turned down the claim because you had ambiguously answered a question on the insurance application about whether the child was eligible for alternative insurance. A question that simply requires a yes or no answer…but, they say you answered ambiguously. But, you’re a single mom. The father has never been involved in the child’s life. How could that have been the case…especially after the insurance company had paid for several regularly scheduled check-ups in the child’s life?

The answer is, of course, there was no ambiguity. The insurance company was only testing two theories. One, maybe you wouldn’t dispute the denial and go ahead and pay the claim. And, two, if you don’t pay the claim they still get an extra 30 to 120 days use of the money while you straighten out their confusion and/or fight the denial.

You say this couldn’t happen. Oh, it did. And, it happened in my own family. It happens in a lot of other families too. It’s time to declare that healthcare is not a place for obscene profits. It’s a place for care and compassion. It should be driven by profit. The least of my worries is whether a private insurance company can compete with a government sponsored plan, or a non-profit plan. I also don’t think the Mega Churches are doing all of God’s work. I think a lot of small congregations who aren’t “profitable” are tending to the teachings of Christianity.

Or…how about you want to buy medical insurance...so, you contact several companies to see what’s available. However, your young son who experienced an infantile seizure is uninsurable because of this pre-existing condition. You have the money to pay the premium…but, can’t get the coverage. Not in America, you say. Oh, yes…in America. Again, this happened to one of my own family members…so, I’m not speaking in the third person or creating a straw man argument.

Then of course, there’s the issue of obtaining a catastrophic policy during a period of unemployment. You find out that you have a malignant tumor on your small intestines and the insurance carrier wants to insist you had a pre-existing condition and just didn’t tell them. Oh, you finally get coverage after you threaten them with bad faith and tell them to prove you had the condition and knew when you took out the policy. Once, again…this happened inside my own family. We had the ability to challenge the insurance company…but, what about the family or individual who doesn’t have that ability.

Then the best of all…you have what is supposed to be the best health insurance money can buy. You fall from a transit authority bus and suffer a fall. The fall results in a compound fracture of your arm. The bone is exposed to the pavement. The city bus driver, being a good employee, immediately calls 911 to request an ambulance. When you get the bill for the ambulance service…the insurance company denies the claim because the ambulance service wasn’t a plan provider. Now, get that picture once again. This is a medical emergency…but, the vendor of an emergency service has to be a planned provider. What kind of insurance is that? I’m not making this up folks…this all happened to my family…not the family next door or somewhere on the other side of the country. And, I don’t think I’m on an island out here. I think this is happening inside of your family too if you just ask around. It’s not doctors, hospitals, nurses, or care providers that are causing the problem with healthcare in this country…it’s the insurance companies.

There are plenty of businesses that are legitimately “profit” driven. But’ they don’t all have to be that way.

I say good riddance to them.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

BELLIGERENCE…THE CURRENCY OF THE INTELLECTUALLY BANKRUPT

This line out of the Charles Blow op-ed article from Saturday August 9 says it all. It’s been my experience as a child of the South, and conservative evangelicalism, that the only way extreme right wing followers have of expressing opinions that have absolutely no factual grounding is to be belligerent. They put their fingers in their ears and yell “LA, LA, LA, LA” so they don’t have to listen to reason. As I expressed to an intellectually bankrupt relative once…I guess your mind’s made up and you don’t want to be confused with the facts.

What’s occurring on with the “Right Wing Mobs” in the days of August 2009 at town hall meetings of Congressional Democrats is even more sinister. This intellectually bankrupt band of brothers is spouting out information that is so blatantly false it sets a whole new standard for ignorance. The right wing nuts insist the idea that healthcare reform is promoting euthanasia. The part of the legislation they are using is a section promoting our individuals to engage in contemplation of a “living will” with their physician. Now comes the weird part…the section they complain about was placed in the legislation by, none other than, the Republicans. Go figure!
Maureen Dowd wrote in the Sunday August 8 NY Times concerning the latest from the former Governor Sarah Palin, “Talking Points Memo reported on Friday, she put up a demented, fact-free Facebook rant trashing the president’s health care plan: “The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.” The latest from Sarah Palin’s about “Obama’s death panel” is either disingenuous and dishonest…or outright dumb! Given her recent history…I’m leaning toward dumb.

Let’s explore two of the “Con’s” objections, the euthanasia “death panel” notion and the “public option.” As I stated, the clause in the House and Senate bills being considers are to encourage and pay for consultation with a physician about a “living will.” This was a very good idea that originated with the Republican members of Congress and the Senate. It’s a decision most family members wish their grandparents, or parents, or husbands, or wives, had made so that end of life decisions weren’t imposed on the remaining family members. It’s anguishing for a son or daughter to wonder what their parents would want to be done about heroic lifesaving measures when the quality of life could not be reversed. And, yes…it would save money. But, is that so bad? You wouldn’t know unless you had been forced into making a decision to maintain life when all the life that was left was to be tethered to a machine. You didn’t want your loved one to suffer, but you know they aren’t going to get any better, so all you can do is sit, wondering what they would say if they had to see the scene as you were. It is really the definition of anguish. Many of our friends and family have taken advantage of Living Wills so their wishes are clear if that event occurs. Some want heroic measures…some don’t. But, it’s their choice, not an insurance company nor a government bureaucrat. You would think Republican Conservatives would be for this. Taking this decision out of the hands of your loved ones and making it yourself is a real act of love. But, how are the Con’s selling this good idea? They’re framing it as a death panel. That’s vulgar!

Then, let’s discuss the “public option.” The Con’s are supposed to be all about stimulating the economic engine of small business. If they are really concerned about small business what could be more helpful than having a very low cost health care plan that’s available so that the new business could make the most out of much needed operating capital rather that diverting those limited dollars to the hands of health care insurers, who pay their top executives several million dollars in salaries, have administration cost of almost 30% (compared to 2% for Medicare & Medicaid), in addition to the army of employees they employ to deny claims. Nothing could be more PRO small business than the public option. But, it for sure isn’t PRO private health care insurers. Those insurers are going to have to shave those enormous salaries, cut their administration cost, and re-deploy those departments who are only dedicated to denying claims. Thus…the rest of us will get a break too! A few more spendable dollars in our pockets for buying those products that will expand the economy. Hey Con’s…think of it this way and maybe you’ll like it. It will be like a tax cut!

Living Wills and a Public Option that will help small businesses…two ideas you would think promoters of individual liberty and advocates of small business would embrace. Not in this BAZARO Republican Party.

Saturday, August 8, 2009

GOVERNMENT THAT WORKS…AND, AN INSURANCE COMPANY YOU DON’T HAVE TO SUE!

I’ve heard it over and over…and, my brain can’t take it anymore. Every cynical Republican “Con” has the question on the tip of their tongue ready to pounce on the suggestion that the government could possibly do anything successfully or efficiently. So…for the “confidence party” (remember they offer phony arguments) here’s the answer to the question.

The agency that has been effective and efficient organization is…”the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.” There are plenty of others but, let’s stick with the FDIC. Not one…listen you “con’s”…NOT ONE…did you get that…NOT ONE depositor has ever lost a penny on an insured deposit. And, depositors have never had to sue the FDIC to get their money. In fact, the FDIC will usually have a check waiting on the depositor when they arrive at the bank after the bank’s failure. The FDIC in many instances just facilitates the transfer of deposit accounts to the bank that purchases the failed bank and the whole ordeal is seamless.

Don’t tell me we’d be worse off if the government “took over” health care. Although the plan that’s being offered isn’t a “take over” at all, and can’t be seen that way…unless you’re a health care insurer who doesn’t want to cut back on your profits which have appreciated by over 400% since 2003. The government run health care programs (Medicare, Medicaid, and the VA) don’t have legions of employees dedicated to search for loop hole for reasons to deny your claim.

For those who have forgotten about the John Grisham novel, (later made into a movie) “the Rainmaker” will remember the saga. The insurance company gladly accepted the premiums until the insured got sick. Then, the first action after the submission of a claim was to deny the claim even before the insurance company had considered whether the policy claim was legitimate. Why did they do this? Because most times the insured will never push the insurance company any further. They just sold you insurance for absolutely nothing.
There are other agencies of the United States Government who also run effectively and efficiently. Let go through the list; the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, the Social Security Administration, (during the Clinton Administration) FEMA. And, let’s remember when you say government that would also include the police, the fire department, the National Parks Department. That’s just to name a few.
Don’t fall for the argument. First, this is not a government take over. It’s a program that’s going to drive the obscene profits out of the health care insurance industry. It’s going to be health coverage for our neighbors who don’t have coverage, or are losing coverage at an alarming rate every day.
The latest moment of embarrassment for the Con’s arrived in the U. S. Congress this week where one liberal member had had enough and introduced an amendment to abolish Medicare and dared the Republican Con’s to match their bluster. Not one Republican Member of Congress had the intestinal fortitude to vote to abolish Medicare. Why? BECAUSE THEY KNOW IT WORKS, IT’S GOOD, AND THEIR CONSTITUTENTS WOULD FIRE THEM IF THEY ABOLISHED MEDICARE. It’s time for us to quit acting dumb and start thinking beyond the end of our noses. A public option is not only necessary…it will be good!

Sunday, August 2, 2009

POLITICS OF…WHO???

I grew up in Oklahoma. I think it gives me a greater appreciation and understanding of citizens of Third World Countries. And, Oklahoma has it all! I’ve known of James Inhofe since the early 70’s. Senator Inhofe has improved with age. He just gets goofier and goofier.

Senator Inhofe in an interview with Rev. Rob Schenck (video broadcast seen on MSNBC on 7/28/2009) referred to the “politics of Jesus” as conveyed to him by Doug Coe. Doug Coe is the leader of “The Family” best known for organizing the National Prayer Breakfast. “The Family” is a secretive network founded in 1935 and is also known as “The Fellowship.”

The Politics of Jesus…now that’s an unusual term isn’t it? Especially if you hold to the Christian belief that one of the reasons Jesus was rejected as the Messiah by the Jewish faith was because he refused to be the “political” leader. Jewish religious leaders wanted a guy who was going to settle the score for the oppression the Jews had endured.

That said…let me suggest to Senator Inhofe that he might want to examine the words of Jesus as stated in the New Testament.

Let’s start with the basics. Give unto Caesar what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s.” These words from Jesus are much of the basis of the separation of church and state. Believe it or not…for many of us that believe in the Christian Faith…the separation of church and state was originally conceived with these words out of the mouth of Jesus…not Thomas Jefferson.

“Do unto other as you would have them do unto you.”

Blessed are the merciful.”

Blessed are the peacemakers.”

“If any man will sue you at the law and take away your coat, let him have your cloak also.”

Politics of who?

Oh…and here’s a dandy…”When you pray, you should not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Truthfully I say unto you, they have their reward. But you, when you pray, go into your closet, and when you have shut your door, pray to your Father in secret: and your father which sees in secret shall reward you openly.” Oops…there goes the National Prayer Breakfast! Unfortunately we all probably share in praying for show…cause let’s face it the seasonal family diner has been the center of the “show prayer” for way too long. Even nationally…just go back and take a look at the Rev. Rick Warren’s doosey of a “show prayer” at President Obama’s inauguration. Not much reward for the Rev. Warren there…but, he got a lot of national TV face time…thus, I guess he got his reward.

Back to the Jesus politics.

“Don’t lay up treasures on earth, where moth and rust corrupt, and where thieves break in and steal. But, lay up treasure in heaven.” Uh oh! There goes the gospel of prosperity and power. In Senator Inhofe’s defense he may be under the impression the Oklahoma is actually heaven.

And, here’s a good one…”whatsoever you do unto the least of these, you do unto me.” Oh my! How’s your record so far Senator Inhofe.

Followers of Jesus need to realize they are supposed to act like Christians…not GOD!

To top it all off, the fine senator confessed during the interview with Rev. Rob Schenck that he went to Africa at Doug Coe’s suggestion to spread the “Politics of Jesus.” And, President Obama did not carry one…NOT ONE county. What do you want to bet they will re-elect Senator Inhofe again and again.