WHAT IF THE POLLSTERS HAVE MISJUDGED THE VOTERS

What if the pollsters have misjudged the “enthusiasm” factor? It may be very possible. The polling firms interview thousands of voters. They discard more of the interviews than they actually use. They do so in order to try to compensate for who they think will show up to vote and who they think will not show up to vote. If they misjudge the “enthusiasm factor” their polling data will skew the results. There is evidence that this may be what is going on this year. Several races have swung wildly from one result to another from poll to poll. Because of this, an observer here and there has begun to wonder what might be going on.

I’m writing this now…because I think I might be right and better to predict before than after. If I’m wrong…then I’ll be the goat.

I suspect that more progressives may turn out than previously expected. There is also a possibility that some Republicans being counted on will not like their choice and consequently sit out this election. Republicans have expressed remorse in Nevada, Delaware and Kentucky. I think these creepy “extreme” rightwingers, identified with the “Tea Party,” are driving progressive numbers up and “establishment” Republican numbers down. I have heard from Republicans, within my own family, who have said these newly branded “Teabaggers” scare them. That’s good because they scare the rest of us too.

I have long suspected that some of the more moderate “establishment” Republicans, in order to save their party, have let these extreme elements of the right have enough rope to hang themselves. I think they have let them…even encouraged them, to invest all their money in what they hope will be a losing cause. If they do then I say congratulations to them. Because even though I have a clearly liberal bias I believe there is a legitimate roll for conservative thinking. And, I really believe when conservatives and liberals are talking to each other, and not past each other, we’re all the better for it.

Most people do not realize that Franklin Roosevelt was a budget hawk when he first came to office. He was opposed to the creation of federal deposit insurance because he thought weaker banks would take advantage of stronger ones. But, Roosevelt was convinced by learned men who convinced him with intellectual and reasonable arguments that the lack of demand would not be improved if the government withdrew from the commercial market. They convinced him that if he funneled money and resources into the hands of workers they would spend the money they got and create demand. The argument for deposit insurance convinced him that if depositors felt there deposits were safe they wouldn’t withdraw them from the banks, and that if the banks had the deposits they would loan the money out in the community creating additional demand.

Let’s hope the pollsters are in error. Let’s hope the progressives turn out in larger number than are expected. I think that’s what’s going to happen…let’s see if I’m right. We’ll all be better the sooner the “Tea Party” principles are put to rest…six feet under!